Who is going to go to the IPL semi-finals? Various Scenarios Listed
Sunday, April 18, 2010
Even if someone had scripted IPL3 they couldn't have done a better job. With only 2 days of cricket and 3 matches left in league stages only one semifinalist has been decided. 5 teams are still vying for the final 3 spots. A number of permutation and combination are possible with various outcome possible. In this post i will try to reduce the confusion a little so that instead of scratching your head people can sit back and enjoy the cricket.
There can be 8 possible scenarios. For the people who lack patience the table given below shows them in a snapshot. As given in legend in each scenario if the cell in the team's row is colored green then the team will make it to the semis, if the cell is yellow then the team going through will depend upon the net run rate and if the cell is red then that team would be out.
Legend |
Going Through |
To Be Decided |
Out |
Now let us see how the results were obtained.
Scenario 1
Assumption: Kings XI, Daredevils and KnightRiders win their respective matches
Procedure: If this happens then Mumbai Indians and Delhi Daredevils would be through to the semi finals directly on the basis of more points. Other then that Bangalore is also certain to make it to the next round because it is bound to have a better run rate then others. Rajasthan Royals and Punjab are already out. As Chennai would have lost the match they would be on 12 points only and thus would be out of contention. Therefore the final place would be up for grabs between Deccan Chargers and Kolkata. Who goes through would be decided on the basis of net run-rate. At the moment the net run-rate difference between the two teams is is only .093. As we are assuming that Kolkata is winning and Chargers are loosing likelihood is that Kolkata would make it through but the end result would depend on how large a win Kolkata has and how narrow the loss Charges suffer.
Conclusion: Mumbai, Bangalore and Delhi would make it. Final slot would be decided between Chargers and Kolkata and my pic is that Kolkata would make it.
Scenario 2
Assumption: Kings XI, Daredevils and Mumbai win their respective matches
Procedure: If this happens then Mumbai, Bangalore, Delhi and Chennai would make it to the semis. The dreaded net run-rate would not be needed.
Conclusion: Mumbai, Bangalore, Delhi and Chennai make it to the next round.
Scenario 3
Assumption: Kings XI, Chargers and KnightRiders win their respective matches
Procedure: In this scenario the two teams that will make it outright to the next round are Mumbai and Chargers. Bangalore will make it because of its superior run rate. Final slot would be decided between Delhi and Kolkata on the basis of net run-rate. At the moment the difference in their net run rate is .522 in favor of Delhi and it might just be a cusion enough for Delhi to make it. A big win by Kolkata and/or a huge loss that Delhi suffer is just what Kolkata requires to make to the semis but the odds of that happening seem slim.
Conclusion: Mumbai, Bangalore and Chargers make it to the next round. Final place to be decided between Delhi and Kolkata. My pick is Delhi.
Scenario 4
Assumption: Kings XI, Chargers and Indians win their respective matches
Procedure: If this happens then Mumbai, Bangalore, Delhi and Chennai would make it to the semis. The dreaded net run-rate would not be needed.
Conclusion: Mumbai, Bangalore, Delhi and Chennai make it to the next round.
Scenario 5
Assumption: Chennai, Daredevils and KnightRiders win their respective matches
Procedure: Mumbai and Delhi would safely sail into semi-finals on the basis of points. Chennai will make it on the basis of better run-rate. Rajasthan and Punjab would be definitely out. Deccan would also be out as it has a net run-rate lower than Bangalore which would go even further down. The final tossup would be between Bangalore and Kolkata. The net run-rate difference between the two sides is .675 in favor of Bangalore. Kolkata would have to win huge to close this gap and thus likelihood of Bangalore making it through is very very high.
Due to the excessive high net run rate of Bangalore, it will most certainly sail through.
Conclusion: Mumbai, Delhi and Chennai make it safely to the next round. Final slot to be decided between Bangalore and Kolkata and chances of Bangalore making it are very high.
Scenario 6
Assumption: Chennai, Daredevils and Mumbai win their respective matches
Procedure: Mumbai and Delhi make it to the next round on the basis of more points. Bangalore and Chennai also make it as they have better net run-rate.
Conclusion: Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai and Bangalore make it to the next round.
Scenario 7
Assumption: Chennai, Chargers and KnightRiders win their respective matches
Procedure: Mumbai and Chargers would make it to the next round on the basis of points. Chennai would make it on the basis of better run-rate which would increase further. Final slot up for grabs is between Bangalore and KnightRiders, of which again Bangalore is favorite as it has a better net run-rate. Kolkata can make it only if they win huge.
Due to the excessive high net run rate of Bangalore, it will most certainly sail through.
Conclusion: Mumbai, Deccan and Chennai would make it. Final slot to be decided between Kolkata and Bangalore. My pick is Bangalore.
Scenario 8
Assumption: Chennai, Deccan and Indians win their respective matches
Procedure: Mumbai and Deccan would make it on the basis of points while Bangalore and Chennai would make it on the basis of better run-rate.
Conclusion: Mumbai, Deccan, Bangalore and Chennai make it to the semis.
Lets see what happens and which scenario transpires.
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